News & Research

Approximately $8.6 billion worth of Bitcoin options set to expire this month are now out-of-the-money (OTM) following a drop in the cryptocurrency's price, CoinDesk reported, citing data from Deribit. OTM refers to options that are not profitable to exercise at the current price. Of the roughly $10.6 billion in open interest for the options expiring on June 26, only about 20% are in-the-money (ITM), leaving the remaining 80% at a loss. This structural imbalance could trigger increased short-term volatility as market makers and traders adjust their hedge positions before the expiration date. The report noted that the max pain price for the options market is currently around $74,000, approximately 14% higher than Bitcoin's spot price of $65,000. Significant open interest is concentrated at the $60,000 put options (about $450 million) and the $80,000 call options (about $406 million), which are being perceived as key support and resistance levels.

Bitcoin could be influenced by three key factors at the upcoming U.S. interest rate decision, scheduled for 6:00 p.m. UTC on June 17, CoinDesk reported. According to the outlet, Bitcoin could rally if the Fed's dot plot shows fewer than 80% of members forecasting a rate hike in December. Dovish remarks from new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, citing lower oil prices and AI-driven inflation easing, could also serve as a positive catalyst. Furthermore, CoinDesk noted that Warsh, who has previously criticized the Fed for excessive communication with the market, might announce a significant reduction in forward guidance, potentially leading to high volatility.

Bitcoin is showing signs of entering a bear market bottom, as 79% of its circulating supply is held by long-term holders and selling from dormant wallets has sharply decreased, according to an analysis by K33 Research reported by The Block. K33 Research explained that in past bear markets, price surges led to significant sell-offs of dormant supply, but on-chain selling pressure from coins held for over two years has been markedly lower this year. The firm noted that 79% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is held by investors for over 155 days, and this cohort is not selling, while waiting demand absorbs the remaining sell volume. Other typical bottom signals observed include 50% of the total circulating supply being at a loss, slowing outflows from spot ETFs, and declining trading volume. However, The Block added that other firms, including Wintermute, Glassnode, and Bitfinex, maintain a cautious stance, suggesting that factors like stablecoin growth and weak institutional demand could lead to further price declines. Market prices are also expected to be influenced by the ongoing peace agreement process between the U.S. and Iran and the FOMC meeting led by the new chairman, scheduled for 6:00 p.m. UTC on June 17.

The U.S. Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision could be a watershed moment for the market in June, according to crypto analyst Killa, Cointelegraph reported. The analyst suggested that if Bitcoin fails to maintain its $64,000 support level, it is highly likely to retest the $60,000 low. Killa added that while there has been recent bullish sentiment building ahead of the FOMC meeting, the market has historically reacted more often with a decline than a rally around the event. Defending the $64,000 support level is essential to maintain the current bullish structure, he noted. Meanwhile, Niels, co-founder of STABL, predicted that BTC could see a short-term rebound due to the FOMC and progress in U.S.-Iran peace negotiations. However, he suggested the downtrend could resume afterward, potentially leading to a correction to $55,000.

The spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) chart provides an order book analysis for the BTC/USDT spot pair. The upper section shows a Volume Heatmap, while the lower section displays the CVD. - The Volume Heatmap at the top tracks trading volume at specific price levels. The background color brightens when the price remains in a certain range for an extended period or experiences significant movement. These brighter areas may act as potential support or resistance levels. - The CVD indicator at the bottom represents buy and sell orders categorized by trade size. As buy orders increase, the corresponding colored line rises. For example, the yellow line indicates orders between $100 and $1,000, while the brown line represents large orders between $1 million and $10 million.

Ki Young Ju, CEO of crypto on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant, said on X that the company is considering building a dashboard and API for stocks, commodities, and other real-world assets (RWA) as crypto capital increasingly flows into these markets. He previously shared an analysis of Samsung Electronics' valuation metrics using a new menu feature on the platform.

BlackRock's recently launched Bitcoin Premium Income ETF (BITA) is structured to underperform Bitcoin itself or deliver poor absolute returns in nearly all market scenarios, regardless of BTC's price direction, according to an analysis by 10x Research. BITA holds the spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) and sells monthly call options against a portion of its assets, distributing the premium received to investors. This covered call strategy inherently sacrifices upside potential for income. 10x Research noted that while there are market phases where selling calls is profitable, there are also phases where it is not. The firm argued that selling calls during unfavorable periods does not generate meaningful income but instead cheaply gives away upside potential. According to the analysis, BITA is designed to sell these calls mechanically every month, irrespective of market conditions.

A strong on-chain bottom signal has emerged for Bitcoin as its Sharpe ratio, a measure of risk-adjusted returns, has reached a level that historically marked bear market bottoms, CoinDesk reported. According to CryptoQuant data, the Bitcoin Sharpe ratio fell to -20 on June 11, a figure consistent with the cycle bottoms of 2015, 2018–2019, and 2022–2023. However, this indicator has historically been followed by a consolidation period of at least three to five months rather than an immediate rebound, suggesting the market may be entering a bottom formation phase. In a related trend, accumulator wallets, which exhibit a strong long-term holding pattern, have purchased approximately 125,000 BTC so far in June. Meanwhile, the amount of Bitcoin held on exchanges has decreased by about 80,000 BTC since February to 2.71 million. The next key market catalyst is expected to be the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) interest rate decision and inflation commentary, led by new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh.

Israel has resumed drone strikes on the southern Lebanese village of Ansariyah and has also attacked the Nabatieh region, according to Middle Eastern media outlets including Al Arabiya TV, Iran's Fars News Agency, and Lebanon's National News Agency. Iran had previously warned that Israeli forces would face a strong response from Iranian armed groups if they did not halt military operations in southern Lebanon.

U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a net inflow of approximately $9.6 million on June 16, marking the second consecutive day of inflows, according to data from Farside Investors. - BlackRock's ETHA: +$17.3 million - Bitwise's ETHW: -$3.5 million - Fidelity's FETH: -$2.2 million - Grayscale's Mini ETH: -$2.0 million